INTRODUCTION

Oregon has a problem with crime, homelessness, and drugs, ranking the state forty-six worst in the nation for public safety. Despite increasing spending on public safety per capita by 48.1% from 2011 to 2021, the third largest increase nationwide, they rank 2nd lowest in police per capita. Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state. In 2011, net in migration was 17,931, but in 2022 net in migration was -29,730, a 264% decrease. Legislators and public officials have begun to reluctantly reverse ill conceived relaxation of many criminal penalties, beginning with the February 2024 recriminalization of possession and use of drugs. It is a step in the right direction, but resources need to be shifted back to basic policing and crime prevention and district attorney’s need to enforce penalties when the law is broken. Failure to do so will likely result in further decreases in net in migration. Public safety is crucial to a state’s ability to attract newcomers, keep existing residents, bring in new businesses, and expand those already located in the state. This has reduced the attractiveness of the state, as shown by declining migration, and will have economic consequences corrective actions are not pursued. Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state.

 

KEY FINDINGS

• Oregon’s Public Safety Competitiveness Index declined from 69 in 2011 to 67 in 2023.
• Public spending per capita increased 48.1% from $769.71 in 2011 to $1140.21 in 2023.
• The Crime rate declined 12.2% from 3362.2 to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite this Oregon’s Crime Rate Competitiveness Index declined from 69 to 61 as other states saw larger declines in the crime rate.
• Drug overdose deaths per capita increased 155.3 percent from 2011 to 2023, and as a result the Drug Overdose Per Capita Competitiveness Index declined from 87 to 74 as other states either saw declines in drug overdose deaths per capita or experienced lower increases than Oregon.
• Despite public spending on public safety increasing 48.1% from 2011 to 2023, the number of police per capita (1,000 residents) declined from 1.6 to 1.5 and the Police Per Capita (1,000 residents) Competitiveness Index went from 50 to 51, dead last.
• The number of incidents of murder/negligent homicide increased 46.2% from 2022 to 2023.
• The number of incidents of vagrancy increased 105.4% from 2020 to 2013.

CSI issues a Free Enterprise Report annually. The report assesses the state’s competitiveness relative to forty-nine other states and the District of Columbia and provides data and analysis on eight policy areas: education, energy, healthcare, housing, infrastructure, public safety, state budget, and taxes and fees. This report is intended to provide additional details on the state budget competitiveness not covered in the Free Enterprise Report. The competitiveness indices should be interpreted as follows: an increase (decrease) in an index indicates increased (decreased) competitiveness relative to the other forty-nine states and District of Columbia. Oregon’s individual performance may improve, for example, its crime rate may decrease, however, other states may have seen greater decreases, and this will cause Oregon’s competitiveness in the crime rate to decline.

 

STATE PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS  INDEX

To gauge how well states are performing regarding housing CSI produces a State Public Safety Competitiveness Index for all fifty states and the District of Columbia consisting of five metrics that capture distinct aspects of public safety, these include the public safety spending per capita, drug overdose deaths, police per capita, the crime rate, and homelessness. Each metric is ranked relative to all fifty states and the District of Columbia. Then the four ranked metrics are equally weighted and summed. This value is ranked again to produce an aggregate measure of housing competitiveness as shown in Figure 1. Oregon’s Public Competitiveness Index was 69 in 2011 and then decreased to 67 in 2023. An increase (decrease) in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index is a positive (negative) qualitative change – i.e., the state is more competitive as the index approaches one hundred and less competitive as the index declines. FIGURE 1 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX   Figure 2 shows the evolution of the five components included in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index. The decline in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index was the result of declines in two of the component competitiveness indices and moderate increases in the other three. The Competitiveness Index for Police per Capita increased from 50 in 2011 to 51 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for the Crime Rate decreased from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023. Meanwhile, the Competitiveness Index for Public Safety Spending per Capita increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Drug Overdose Deaths increased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Homelessness increased from 51 in 2011 to 52 in 2023. The underlying cause of Oregon’s decrease in public safety competitiveness was primarily the result of decreases in the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index and the Drug Overdose Deaths Per Capita Competitiveness Index relative to other states.

FIGURE 2 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX COMPONENTS  

 

PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness for public safety spending per capita was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in together with the competitiveness index, see Figure 3. The index increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. This increase was the result of a 48% increase in the underlying metric and other states having smaller increases in the underlying metric relative to Oregon, meaning Oregon has increased spending on public safety more than other states. In 2011, Oregon public safety spending per capita was $769.71. This increased to $1140.21 in 2023, a 48.1% increase.

FIGURE 3 –OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC  

 

DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA - COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the drug overdose deaths per capita was the result of a change in its own performance or the metric underlying the competitiveness index, Figure 4 shows the index and the underlying metric. Both the index and the underlying metric rose from 2011 to 2023. The index decreased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023. The underlying metric increased from 0.000123 in 2011 to 0.000314 in 2023, a 155.3% increase and this is what drove the competitiveness index down as the underlying metric increased much more than in other states.

FIGURE 4 – DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA – COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC  

 

POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the police per capita (1,000 residents) was the result of a change in its own performance or larger or smaller changes in the metric in other states, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 5. The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of an increase in the underlying metric, meaning there are more police per capita now. In 2011, the metric was 1.7 police officers per 1,000 residents. That increased to 1.8 in 2023. As a result, the competitiveness index increased from 54 in 2011 to 59 in 2023.

FIGURE 5 – POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC - OREGON  

 

CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC

To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the Crime rate was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 6. Data from 2011 through 2020 was based on the FBI’s previous data classification. CSI assumes the crime rates for the years 2021, 2022, 2023 are the same as 2020. The FBI is now using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) so the next iteration of the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index will utilize NIBRS. The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of a large decrease in the underlying metric. In 2011, the metric was 3362.2 but had declined 12.2% to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite the decrease in the crime rate, the crime rate competitiveness index declined from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023 as other states experienced lower crime rates over time.

FIGURE 6 – CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC - OREGON  

 

CRIME RATES IN OREGON 2011 TO 2023

Data shown in Figures 8 and 9, comes from the Oregon Bureau of Investigation Crime Statistics. These data differ from the data used to calculate the competitiveness index and as such, the two data sets are not comparable. Shown in Figure 8, the crime rate for all offenses declined 9.3% from 2020 to 2023, with the largest decrease coming from crimes against society (-13.8%), followed by crimes against property (-3.9%). The only major category of crime that increased was crimes against person, rising 0.3%.

FIGURE 8 - AVERAGE MONTHLY CRIME RATE FOR MAJOR CRIME CATEGORIES & VIOLENT CRIMES

Average Monthly Crime Incidents (Based on NIBRS)
	2020	2021	2022	2023	% Change 2020-2023
Other	4701	3946	3676	3450	-26.6%
Person	3510	3550	3604	3520	0.3%
Property	15080	15183	16288	14498	-3.9%
Society	7736	6690	6624	6669	-13.8%
All Offenses	31027	29370	30191	28137	-9.3%

 

Figure 9 shows the number of crime incidents by specific crime for 2020-2023. Decreases in incidents are shown in red and increases are shown in green. Out of sixty-three categories, 25 saw increases in the number of incidents and 38 saw declines. The largest increases occurred in prostitution (940%), vagrancy violations (105.4%), shoplifting (48.2%, extortion/blackmail (54.6%), and murder and negligent manslaughter (46.2%).

FIGURE 9 – NUMBER OF CRIME INCIDENTS BY SPECIFIC CRIME (NIBRS)

Number of Crime Incident by Specific Crime (NIBRS)
Oregon Specific Crime (ONIBRS)	2020	2021	2022	2022	2023	% Change 2020-2023
Aggravated Assault	7459	8760	8551	8551	8034	7.7%
All Other Offenses	31912	32530	32207	32207	29984	-6.0%
Peeping Tom	29	37	33	33	36	24.1%
Family Offenses, Nonviolent	718	578	517	517	503	-29.9%
Forcible Rape	1187	1284	1268	1268	1207	1.7%
Intimidation	5815	5212	5540	5540	5478	-5.8%
Kidnapping	431	468	457	457	391	-9.3%
Forcible Fondling	1436	1615	1634	1634	1478	2.9%
Sexual Assault with Object	214	222	252	252	206	-3.7%
Statutory Rape	335	312	326	326	284	-15.2%
Incest	70	66	70	70	53	-24.3%
Forcible Sodomy	377	433	408	408	340	-9.8%
Simple Assault	19594	19437	20138	20138	20403	4.1%
Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter	119	184	188	188	174	46.2%
Arson	1361	1469	1280	1280	1326	-2.6%
Burglary/Breaking and Entering	14570	14169	15344	15344	13970	-4.1%
Counterfeiting/Forgery	3413	2867	3062	3062	2891	-15.3%
Embezzlement	286	269	267	267	226	-21.0%
Extortion/Black mail	174	238	274	274	269	54.6%
False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game	6599	5766	5583	5583	5767	-12.6%
Identity Theft	5931	6364	5670	5670	5593	-5.7%
Wire fraud	898	895	1047	1047	941	4.8%
Impersonation	609	540	435	435	422	-30.7%
Credit Card/Auto Teller Machine Fraud	3533	3483	3498	3498	3145	-11.0%
Bad Checks	83	28	41	41	40	-51.8%
Welfare Fraud	16	14	20	20	17	6.3%
All Other Larceny	29411	26466	27880	27880	25830	-12.2%
Shoplifting	15831	15414	19290	19290	23459	48.2%
Theft From Motor Vehicles	26155	24381	24825	24825	19100	-27.0%
Pocket-Picking	321	341	382	382	341	6.2%
Theft From Building	6040	5871	6631	6631	6332	4.8%
Purse-Snatching	353	430	391	391	430	21.8%
Theft From Motor Vehicles Parts/ Accessories	5358	9684	9439	9439	4208	-21.5%
Theft From Coin-Operated Machine or Device	265	162	164	164	132	-50.2%
Motor Vehicle Theft	16195	19710	23156	23156	17411	7.5%
Robbery	2241	2604	2930	2930	2643	17.9%
Stolen Property Offenses	1144	1468	1700	1700	1362	19.1%

 

Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property	37900	37986	38286	38286	33711	-11.1%
Trespass of Real Property	15903	12419	13864	13864	14217	-10.6%
Animal Cruelty	415	482	478	478	494	19.0%
Curfew/Loitering/Vagrancy Violations	203	93	120	120	417	105.4%
Disorderly Conduct	10989	8648	8434	8434	8320	-24.3%
Driving Under the Influence	12377	13513	13529	13529	14289	15.4%
Drug/Narcotic Violations	14699	7578	6035	6035	6729	-54.2%
Drug Equipment Violations	1358	903	653	653	828	-39.0%
Liquor Law Violations	2231	1197	1361	1361	1275	-42.9%
Pornography/Obscene Material	612	607	596	596	620	1.3%
Runaway	1742	1044	1098	1098	1073	-38.4%
Weapon Law Violations	6374	6186	5993	5993	5921	-7.1%
Hacking/Computer Invasion	195	216	158	158	103	-47.2%
Assist or Promote Prostitution	43	63	47	47	56	30.2%
Prostitution	67	142	101	101	75	11.9%
Negligent Manslaughter	51	44	44	44	42	-17.6%
Human Trafficking - Commercial Sex Acts	32	31	29	29	37	15.6%
Human Trafficking - Involuntary Servitude	4	4	7	7	6	50.0%
Bribery	11	11	10	10	5	-54.5%
Gambling Equipment Violation	0	1	0	0	0
Justifiable Homicide	8	15	14	14	7	-12.5%
Purchasing Prostitution	15	115	60	60	156	940.0%
Sports Tampering	2	0	4	4	0	-100.0%
OUCR Only Crime	624	0	0	0	0	-100.0%
Drunkenness	2	0	0	0	0	-100.0%
Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling	1	0	0	0	0	-100.0%
Total	316341	305069	315819	315819	292807

 

 

GOING FORWARD

The crime rate in Oregon has come down since 2011 but there is still much to be done to rectify the situation created by soft on crime policies and liberal drug policies. Oregon is ranked 46th out fifty states and the District of Columbia in public safety. It ranks 4th highest in public safety spending per capita but 49th in police per capita.