Experts:
November 10, 2026
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Phoenix MSA rose an estimated 2.5% year-over-year (YOY) in October, unchanged from the rate reported in August of this year. Nationally, CPI growth increased to 3.9% from 3.7% in September, and 3.4% in August. High fuel prices tied to global supply shortages and the conflict in Iran have driven up CPI readings since March. Nationally, energy prices increased 20.3% over the last 12 months, while Arizona saw its energy prices increase 16.1%.
• Fuel prices are the primary driver behind inflation across the U.S. For the Phoenix metro, the YOY increase for all items less energy continued to fall, reaching 1.2% in October (down from the June high of 2.0%). Nationally, inflation less energy increased slightly from 2.6% in September to 2.8% in October.
• Since October 2019, prices in the Phoenix metro area have increased 31.2%. CSI estimates the resulting average monthly costs for a typical Arizona Household is now $1,705 higher than it was in 2019. In a typical 7-year period, cumulative inflation should run closer to 15%.
• Despite recent upticks tied to global fuel prices, inflation in the Phoenix metro has tracked below the U.S. and many other metro areas. Since October of 2024, the Phoenix metro saw cumulative inflation of just under 4.0%, which is on par with what would have been expected in a “normal” inflationary environment of around 2.0% per year. Excluding the energy category of the CPI, Arizona has experienced a 2.8% increase in prices since October of 2024, versus 5.7% at the national level.
• Among the 23 metro areas tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Phoenix metro saw the 2nd slowest YOY inflation rate. For the 14 regions that posted CPI figures in October, the Phoenix metro posted the slowest YOY inflation.
• The shelter category continues to be the main driver behind the lower inflation readings in the Phoenix metro. CSI estimates the shelter category in the Phoenix metro fell nearly 1.0% YOY, compared to a 3.4% increase at the national level. The increase in the price index for all items less shelter was 4.4% in October, slightly higher than the national reading of 4.2%.
