Colorado Crime and Aurora’s Experience with Auto Theft   

Introduction 

Colorado’s crime rate is not back to its pre-pandemic level. Both local and state authorities are currently attempting to find policy solutions. 

Some localities have created policies and procedures that go beyond state guidelines in an effort to control crime. The City of Aurora implemented mandatory minimum sentencing guidelines for auto theft in 2022, for example, the year that Colorado’s and Aurora’s auto theft rates were highest. This policy led to a decrease in the auto theft rate in the city beyond what was seen statewide. In 2023, state lawmakers tried to address auto theft with passage of SB23-097. This bill did not implement mandatory minimum sentences, but instead made it a felony to commit auto theft regardless of the value of the vehicle. The law went into effect on July 1, 2023. 

Using Aurora’s experience as a guide, CSI attempted to assess what the economic savings would be if the state were to experience the same decrease in auto theft, shoplifting, and overall crime that Aurora did after implementing its ordinance. 

Key Findings 

• The share of auto theft in Aurora was 19% in July 2022. Since the passage of Aurora’s ordinance, known as “Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Motor Vehicle Theft,” the share averaged 16% from August 2022 through December 2024, representing a three percentage point decrease from the pre-August 2022 period.
•  A market model predicting auto theft in Aurora suggests there were 723 fewer auto thefts in Aurora from August 2022 to December 2024, a 6% decline relative to other large cities in the state.
• For automobile crime, a 6% decline equates to $16.3 million in economic savings for Aurora from August 2022 through December 2024. For the largest city in the state, Denver, the economic savings would be $37.3 million over the same 29 months.
• In contrast to Aurora’s experience, initial model results on the state impact from its 2023 effort was less pronounced at a 3% reduction in auto theft.
• If Aurora’s experience is indicative of the potential savings of a similar statewide approach to crime, a 6% decline in crime statewide for all reported criminal offenses would have equated to $1.8 billion in economic savings in 2024, or roughly $774 per Colorado household.
• Changes in local crime are not uniform across the state, however. The change in crime over the past five years varies widely by city and county. 

Colorado Crime Trends

As Figure 1 shows, at 288,169, instances of reported crime were still above pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2024. In March 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, crime counts stood at 277,387.

Together, Figure 3 and Figure 4 provide examples of the overall crime trends for shoplifting and auto theft for selected cities. These examples show crime shifts around the state, with some cities having seen a drop in shoplifting and auto theft and other cities having seen large increases. 

State and municipal policy related to punishment for committing a crime affects crime rates. As an example of the impact municipal policy can have, this report evaluates the impact Aurora’s policy on mandatory minimum sentences has had on auto theft.

Figure 1

Although overall reported crime has been trending down, that scenario is not the case for all types of crime. For instance, as Figure 2 shows, motor vehicle theft has trended lower since peaking in October 2022, but shoplifting has continued to trend up since bottoming in February 2022 at 17,426.

Figure 2

The change in crime over the past five years varies widely by city and county. For instance, as Figure 3 shows, the annual shoplifting rate per 100,000 residents dropped by 45% in Boulder, but increased by almost 73% in Jefferson.

The change in the auto theft rate also differs widely by city and county. For instance, as Figure 4 shows, the auto theft rate was up 71% in Denver from 2019 to 2024, but down 8% in Mesa over the same period.

Figure 3

Figure 4

The Aurora Experience with Auto Theft

In July 2022, Aurora’s City Council approved new mandatory minimum sentences for convictions related to stealing a car. The ordinance, which initially had an effective length of two years, was renewed in 2024. 

With an effective date of August 2022, the policy shift offers an opportunity to review the effect the policy had on motor vehicle theft in Aurora in relation to other cities. It is also worth noting that the state also took on the issue of auto theft in 2023 with passage of SB23-097. This bill did not implement mandatory minimum sentences, but instead made it a felony to commit auto theft regardless of the value of the vehicle. It went into effect July 1, 2023. 

Figure 5 shows the rate of motor vehicle theft per 100,000 residents for 18 of the 20 largest cities in Colorado. (Two cities did not provide sufficient police data for a comparison.) The city of Aurora is red. Highlighted in yellow is the period in which the new ordinance has been in effect.

In Aurora, motor vehicle theft per 100,000 residents generally floated in the 20 to 40 range from 2008 through most of 2016. In the fall of 2016, motor vehicle theft began to rise until it reached a new, somewhat stable level in the 40 to 60 range through February 2020.

The acute phase of the pandemic period, from March 2020 through February 2022, saw motor vehicle theft balloon in the city, reaching a peak of 173.4 offenses per 100,000 residents in February 2022. The second and third-highest months of all time occurred in May and July 2022. Since then, motor vehicle theft has generally trended downward, ending 2024 at 75.8 per 100,000 residents. That number was quite high by historical comparison, but lower than the enormous rise seen from 2020 through the first half of 2022.

Up until August 2022, the general trends in motor vehicle theft in Aurora are somewhat similar to other municipalities, which, again, are also shown in Figure 5. 

The question is whether motor vehicle theft dropped more quickly in Aurora than in other cities after the implementation of the July 2022 ordinance that increased the penalty for auto theft to a mandatory minimum sentence. 

Figure 5

Effect of Mandatory Minimum Sentence

To investigate the effect of mandatory minimum sentencing in Aurora, we employed a market model and the share of total auto thefts in the market. Our results are reported in Figure 6 and Figure 7. They suggest that, since August 2022, auto thefts declined by 6% more in the Aurora area than in other large cities after accounting for the drops in other cities. Appendix A offers details of the methodology.

Figure 6

Share of Total Auto Thefts in the Top 18 Cities

A second scope through which to view the impact of Aurora’s ordinance is the share of auto thefts in municipality relative to the other cities. In July 2022, Aurora stood at 19% of total auto thefts. Since the passage of the Aurora ordinance, auto thefts in Aurora have averaged 16% of total auto thefts.

Figure 7

The State’s Response to Automobile Theft

The Impact of SB23-097 

As noted earlier in this paper, the state’s bipartisan response to rising and continually high automobile theft was to make auto theft a felony regardless of the value of the vehicle. That bill went into effect on July 1, 2023. To inspect the impact of the Colorado Legislature’s response, we performed a Chow test on the historical experience of crime with the test looking at whether the trend in automotive theft from the pre-July 2022 period changed after passage of SB 23-097. 

As Figure 8 shows, the result of the Chow test suggested there was a “structural break” in auto thefts post-July 2023, meaning the state policy may have had an effect on the number of thefts as well. (See Appendix B for details.) 

How large was effect? Using the change in the coefficient, state policy may have reduced auto thefts by 3% — in other words, not as much as the Aurora experience, but still an impact. Given that many factors impact crime, further multifactor research is needed to confirm the differentiated trends.

Figure 8

Cost of Crime in Colorado

Economic Savings from Automobile Theft

Finding and penalizing individuals committing auto theft is expensive. Using a cost-benefit model for the cost of crime developed by T.R. Miller and his fellow researchers in 2017, we estimate Aurora’s ordinance reduced the economic cost of reported crime by $16.3 million.

Figure 9 provides a breakdown of a single incident of auto theft. The largest cost of auto theft is property loss ($14,910), followed by the cost of adjudication and sanctioning ($3,847) and public services ($1,693).

Figure 9

Savings from a 6% Drop for Shoplifting, Overall Crime 

The Aurora experience demonstrates that, if Colorado were to adopt tougher stances on all types of crime, overall crime rates would fall materially and the savings would be significant. In fact, as Figure 10 shows, with a 6% drop in crime, the state could have saved $1.8 billion in 2024. The economic savings from a 6% drop in theft/larceny would have been $107.3 million last year from police reported and non-police reported crime. These figures stem from research developed by the previously mentioned T.R. Miller and developed further by CSI. The estimates include estimates for social costs such as medical care, mental healthcare, productivity, property loss, public services, adjudication and sanctioning, perpetrator work loss, and quality of life.

Figure 10

Bottom Line  

Overall, crime in the state is still above its pre-pandemic level, but, based on the impact of the City of Aurora’s ordinance change, which introduced mandatory penalties for automobile theft, crime and the costs associated costs of it could be brought down.